Analysis of recent coronavirus data for different countries and regions

Note: On March 24 the source of the data suddenly changed the format of the tables. I have updated the script to use data from a different source. If you see problems with any of the plots, please let me know.

Table of contents

Updated on Thursday 16 April 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
United States 28506 (+2531) 643508 (+31763) 48679 (+10004) 566323 (+19228)
Italy 21645 (+578) 165155 (+2667) 38092 (+962) 105418 (+1127)
Spain 18708 (+453) 177644 (+3584) 70853 (+3349) 88083 (-218)
France 17167 (+1438) 147863 (+4560) 30955 (+2150) 99741 (+972)
United Kingdom 12868 (+761) 98476 (+4603) 0 (+0) 85608 (+3842)
Iran 4777 (+94) 76389 (+1512) 49933 (+1804) 21679 (-386)
Belgium 4440 (+283) 33573 (+2454) 7107 (+239) 22026 (+1932)
Germany 3804 (+309) 134753 (+2543) 72600 (+4400) 58349 (-2166)
China 3342 (+1) 82295 (+46) 77816 (+78) 1137 (-33)
Netherlands 3134 (+189) 28153 (+734) 250 (+0) 24769 (+545)
Brazil 1757 (+225) 28610 (+3348) 14026 (+10980) 12827 (-7857)
Turkey 1518 (+115) 69392 (+4281) 5674 (+875) 62200 (+3291)
Switzerland 1239 (+65) 26336 (+400) 15400 (+1700) 9697 (-1365)
Sweden 1203 (+170) 11927 (+482) 381 (+0) 10343 (+312)
Canada 1010 (+112) 28379 (+1482) 8937 (+765) 18432 (+605)
Portugal 599 (+32) 18091 (+643) 383 (+36) 17109 (+575)
Indonesia 469 (+10) 5136 (+297) 446 (+20) 4221 (+267)
Ireland 444 (+38) 12547 (+1068) 77 (+52) 12026 (+978)
Mexico 406 (+74) 5399 (+385) 2125 (+161) 2868 (+150)
India 405 (+12) 12322 (+835) 1432 (+73) 10485 (+750)
Austria 393 (+9) 14350 (+124) 8098 (+465) 5859 (-350)
Ecuador 388 (+19) 7858 (+255) 780 (+84) 6690 (+152)
Romania 372 (+21) 7216 (+337) 1217 (+166) 5627 (+150)
Philippines 349 (+14) 5453 (+230) 353 (+58) 4751 (+158)
Algeria 336 (+10) 2160 (+90) 708 (+17) 1116 (+63)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 15 April 2020 131033 (+7856) 1995544 (+82588) 431693 (+42549)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 16 April 2020 133311 ( +4839) 2015182 ( +53005) 439382 ( +21090)
Fri 17 April 2020 137757 ( +4446) 2063254 ( +48072) 459152 ( +19770)
Sat 18 April 2020 141809 ( +4052) 2106598 ( +43344) 477500 ( +18348)
Sun 19 April 2020 145474 ( +3666) 2145473 ( +38875) 494371 ( +16871)
Mon 20 April 2020 148769 ( +3295) 2180174 ( +34701) 509753 ( +15381)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 15 April 2020 3342 (+1) 82295 (+46) 77816 (+78)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 16 April 2020 3282 ( +0) 81223 ( +0) 76674 ( +18)
Fri 17 April 2020 3283 ( +0) 81223 ( +0) 76690 ( +16)
Sat 18 April 2020 3283 ( +0) 81223 ( +0) 76703 ( +14)
Sun 19 April 2020 3283 ( +0) 81223 ( +0) 76715 ( +12)
Mon 20 April 2020 3283 ( +0) 81223 ( +0) 76725 ( +10)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 15 April 2020 18708 (+453) 177644 (+3584) 70853 (+3349)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 16 April 2020 18295 ( +208) 174275 ( +1572) 70774 ( +1652)
Fri 17 April 2020 18469 ( +174) 175602 ( +1326) 72177 ( +1403)
Sat 18 April 2020 18613 ( +145) 176717 ( +1116) 73359 ( +1182)
Sun 19 April 2020 18734 ( +120) 177654 ( +937) 74350 ( +990)
Mon 20 April 2020 18833 ( +100) 178439 ( +785) 75175 ( +825)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 15 April 2020 21645 (+578) 165155 (+2667) 38092 (+962)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 16 April 2020 20992 ( +221) 160165 ( +1335) 39147 ( +1268)
Fri 17 April 2020 21185 ( +193) 161339 ( +1174) 40342 ( +1195)
Sat 18 April 2020 21352 ( +168) 162370 ( +1031) 41461 ( +1119)
Sun 19 April 2020 21498 ( +146) 163273 ( +904) 42504 ( +1043)
Mon 20 April 2020 21624 ( +126) 164064 ( +791) 43471 ( +967)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 15 April 2020 12868 (+761) 98476 (+4603) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 16 April 2020 13284 ( +547) 101697 ( +3953) 195 ( +7)
Fri 17 April 2020 13757 ( +473) 105290 ( +3594) 202 ( +7)
Sat 18 April 2020 14160 ( +403) 108528 ( +3237) 210 ( +8)
Sun 19 April 2020 14501 ( +340) 111419 ( +2892) 218 ( +8)
Mon 20 April 2020 14785 ( +284) 113983 ( +2563) 226 ( +8)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 15 April 2020 28506 (+2531) 643508 (+31763) 48679 (+10004)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 16 April 2020 29194 ( +1468) 646977 ( +17525) 46414 ( +2730)
Fri 17 April 2020 30502 ( +1308) 662262 ( +15285) 48952 ( +2539)
Sat 18 April 2020 31651 ( +1149) 675492 ( +13230) 51280 ( +2328)
Sun 19 April 2020 32646 ( +996) 686866 ( +11375) 53386 ( +2106)
Mon 20 April 2020 33500 ( +853) 696590 ( +9724) 55270 ( +1884)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 15 April 2020 17167 (+1438) 147863 (+4560) 30955 (+2150)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 16 April 2020 16976 ( +460) 151258 ( +3436) 38659 ( +3397)
Fri 17 April 2020 17367 ( +391) 154277 ( +3018) 42383 ( +3724)
Sat 18 April 2020 17696 ( +329) 156913 ( +2636) 46466 ( +4083)
Sun 19 April 2020 17971 ( +275) 159203 ( +2290) 50942 ( +4476)
Mon 20 April 2020 18200 ( +229) 161183 ( +1980) 55850 ( +4908)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 15 April 2020 3804 (+309) 134753 (+2543) 72600 (+4400)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 16 April 2020 3755 ( +126) 133867 ( +1334) 74310 ( +2676)
Fri 17 April 2020 3864 ( +109) 135004 ( +1137) 76636 ( +2326)
Sat 18 April 2020 3958 ( +93) 135970 ( +966) 78636 ( +2000)
Sun 19 April 2020 4037 ( +79) 136788 ( +819) 80339 ( +1703)
Mon 20 April 2020 4104 ( +67) 137481 ( +692) 81777 ( +1439)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 15 April 2020 3134 (+189) 28153 (+734) 250 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 16 April 2020 3069 ( +59) 28023 ( +572) 250 ( +0)
Fri 17 April 2020 3119 ( +50) 28534 ( +511) 250 ( +0)
Sat 18 April 2020 3161 ( +42) 28988 ( +454) 250 ( +0)
Sun 19 April 2020 3196 ( +35) 29389 ( +402) 250 ( +0)
Mon 20 April 2020 3226 ( +30) 29743 ( +354) 250 ( +0)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 15 April 2020 4440 (+283) 33573 (+2454) 7107 (+239)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 16 April 2020 4709 ( +251) 32937 ( +737) 7296 ( +195)
Fri 17 April 2020 4935 ( +226) 33587 ( +650) 7463 ( +166)
Sat 18 April 2020 5136 ( +200) 34157 ( +570) 7603 ( +141)
Sun 19 April 2020 5311 ( +175) 34654 ( +497) 7722 ( +119)
Mon 20 April 2020 5463 ( +152) 35086 ( +432) 7821 ( +99)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 15 April 2020 1203 (+170) 11927 (+482) 381 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 16 April 2020 1155 ( +42) 12384 ( +437) 407 ( +8)
Fri 17 April 2020 1191 ( +36) 12798 ( +414) 413 ( +7)
Sat 18 April 2020 1221 ( +30) 13188 ( +390) 419 ( +5)
Sun 19 April 2020 1247 ( +26) 13553 ( +366) 423 ( +4)
Mon 20 April 2020 1268 ( +21) 13894 ( +341) 426 ( +3)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 15 April 2020 286 (+23) 7582 (+380) 668 (+50)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 16 April 2020 296 ( +14) 7727 ( +229) 737 ( +71)
Fri 17 April 2020 309 ( +12) 7932 ( +205) 804 ( +68)
Sat 18 April 2020 319 ( +11) 8114 ( +182) 867 ( +62)
Sun 19 April 2020 328 ( +9) 8274 ( +160) 923 ( +56)
Mon 20 April 2020 336 ( +8) 8414 ( +140) 972 ( +49)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 15 April 2020 1239 (+65) 26336 (+400) 15400 (+1700)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 16 April 2020 1228 ( +25) 25832 ( +153) 14776 ( +307)
Fri 17 April 2020 1250 ( +22) 25961 ( +129) 15020 ( +244)
Sat 18 April 2020 1269 ( +19) 26069 ( +109) 15212 ( +192)
Sun 19 April 2020 1284 ( +16) 26161 ( +91) 15363 ( +151)
Mon 20 April 2020 1298 ( +13) 26237 ( +77) 15480 ( +117)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Wed 15 April 2020 4777 (+94) 76389 (+1512) 49933 (+1804)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Thu 16 April 2020 4664 ( +52) 78180 ( +1355) 57941 ( +4702)
Fri 17 April 2020 4711 ( +47) 79429 ( +1249) 63059 ( +5118)
Sat 18 April 2020 4752 ( +42) 80576 ( +1147) 68629 ( +5570)
Sun 19 April 2020 4789 ( +37) 81627 ( +1051) 74690 ( +6061)
Mon 20 April 2020 4822 ( +33) 82587 ( +960) 81287 ( +6597)

Comparison of different countries

Early onset: China regions

Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.